The “Windsor framework”: is it the last word on the Irish border puzzle?

The British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen have described the agreement as a “decisive breakthrough”. According to Rishi Sunak, thanks to this agreement, Northern Ireland will be “the world’s most exciting economic zone” having privileged access, not just to the UK home market, but also the European Union single market. No other country has that.

Anti-Brexit campaigners have observed however that, obviously, prior to Brexit, the entire UK, not just Northern Ireland, had enjoyed the benefits of unfettered access to the EU single market and the UK domestic market, accusing Sunak of inconsistency. Therefore, Sunak’s argument only makes sense if you believe that being outside the EU will make the UK domestic market a much more attractive one for companies than it was when the UK was a member, they say. Perhaps that might be the case if Brexit were to turbo-charge the economy in some way that would make it outperform the EU. But there is no evidence at all for this happening; instead, so far, most economists believe Brexit has been a drag on economic performance.

On the other side, the agreement has been promoted with reservation by the neo-moderate leader of the Labour opposition Keir Starmer, convinced that it is a useful though ‘belated’ step that a next Labour government will be able to extend well ‘beyond Northern Ireland’, to generally favor a ‘softer’ cooperation between London and Brussels. As if to water down the Brexit, albeit without crusades that call it into question.

Beyond the predicable criticism, one cannot help but observe that Sunak has managed to achieve what his predecessors could not. From time to time, the media argues about the UK’s willingness to rethink Brexit, particularly in the face of the current country’s economic crisis. Though, a step backwards is not even conceivable, while at least a step forward has been made thanks to this agreement on Northern Ireland.

The new agreement could also be decisive in unblocking the political stalemate currently underway in Belfast, where the right-wing unionist party, the Dup (Democratic Unionist Party), has opposed the formation of a government of national unity, unless there is a ‘satisfactory’ revision of the Protocol. No official comments have yet come from the Northern Irish Unionists, who have reserved the right to know the details of the new arrangement before making their judgement.

Other than Northern Ireland’s opinion, for Sunak, the challenge of internal discontent within his majority remains. The unease is partly fueled by a desire for revenge on the part of one wing of the Tories, the one previously led by Johnson, who may not be fully satisfied with the deal.

The next procedural steps will mark victory or defeat for Sunak’s achievement, starting with the House of Commons vote on the framework, where in the event of an internal party revolt, Sunak will need Labour's votes to get Westminster's approval.