Globalization Trends 2040: Economy, Politics, Ideology

Where is globalization headed in the next twenty years? Reading large data sets through his theoretical framework of globalization, Professor Manfred Steger examines global trends related to three social dimensions: economic dynamic of “fragmegration,” political volatility, and ideological struggles. A more competitive global environment will deepen economic inequality while heightening the risk of large-scale political conflicts and ideological confrontations. The growing gap between what globally connected citizens demand from their national government and what states and corporations can deliver will not only increase cultural differentiation along proliferating identity categories, but also continue to drive up the national debt levels. At the same time, the rising global imaginary provides a golden opportunity for the design and development of new global governance structures that are more capable of coordinating cooperative responses to global problems. As China consolidates its superpower status, the worldwide contest over the shaping of global norms, rules, and institutions is likely to heat up. The talk ends with the short discussion of two possible future scenarios: (1) hypercompetitive co-existence; and (2) fragmenting regionalization.