Advancing the Energy Transition: Key Insights from Recent Research

Two recent open-access publications offer insights into Germany's path towards a sustainable energy future, highlighting strategic approaches and technological innovations necessary to meet climate goals:

The first study aims to calculate a step-wise marginal CO2 abatement cost curve (MACC) to identify the most cost-effective order of investments in decarbonization measures for the German sector-coupled energy system from 2030 to 2045. It provides in-depth insights into the techno-economic, intertemporal, and intersectoral interactions of decarbonization options by applying a linear optimization model to determine the minimal cost of CO2 abatement.

Key Findings:

• Optimal Strategy: Expanding wind and solar power capacity, coupled with increasing demand-side flexibility through battery electric vehicles, power-to-heat, and power-to-gas.
• Significant Interactions: The integration of surplus electricity via sector coupling significantly reduces curtailment.
• Policy Implications: The step-wise MACC approach aids policymakers in identifying the most cost-efficient technology mix to achieve climate targets.

The second study adopts a multi-model approach, integrating a model comparison to probe how the electrification of demand-side sectors and strategic load shifts of battery electric vehicles and heat pumps might impact Germany’s generation adequacy by 2030. Specific demand models from the transport and heating sectors and a future load structure projection model are interlinked with three electricity system models. The comparative analysis of the three electricity system models unveils discrepancies in dispatch decisions for power plants, flexibility options’ load shifts, and their effects on generation adequacy, directly tied to model attributes.

Key Findings:

• Optimized Load Shifting: Reduces the strain on power generation adequacy despite increased electricity demand.
• Environmental Benefits: Load shifts mitigate curtailment of renewables and consumers, reducing carbon emissions by lowering conventional power generation.
• Methodological Variations: The comparison underscores methodological variations (linear optimization versus agent-based simulation, myopic foresight versus perfect foresight) as pivotal, emphasizing the significance of considering load change and start-up costs for power plants.

"These studies underscore the importance of strategic planning, advanced modeling techniques, and the integration of renewable energy sources and demand-side flexibility in Germany's energy transition. As we move forward, such comprehensive research will be instrumental in guiding policy and investment decisions for a sustainable and resilient energy future" says Steffi Misconel, first author of both studies.