Figures, trends, and valuable insights have been compiled in the study “The evolution of public transportation electrification”, conducted by a team from Eurac Research at the request of Motus-E. This national association brings together industry operators and academia with the goal of promoting the transition to electric mobility.  

The study is now available to the public, industry, transport companies, and local authorities. To help navigate the wealth of data, we asked the authors to provide guidance and highlight the most significant findings. 

The five chapters of the study public transport and electric buses 

The information gathered and analyzed in the study covers very different aspects of local public transport and electric mobility. “Reports and technical studies on the electrification of public transport typically focus on specific aspects, often with a highly engineering-driven approach. In this case, however, we were asked to take as broad a perspective as possible –the supply chain in question is large and diverse, and when discussing the transition to cleaner energy, public transport companies and local authorities face very different problems and challenges. We have thus collected and analyzed data on various aspects that can assist those who work in the field and those who make decisions”, explains Giuseppe Rotondo, researcher at the Institute for Renewable Energy and one of the study’s authors.  

The study is divided into five chapters. The first extracts key data from the market: how many zero-emission buses have been registered, and where? How many are already in operation in Italy and Europe? Then, there is the regulatory aspect, examining incentives and funding methods to financially support the transition of local public transport. Next are examples from four Italian cities, the ones that had the highest number of electric buses put up for bidding in 2023: Milan, Turin, Rome, and Naples. The study then covers more technical topics related to the technologies used, such as types of electric motors, batteries, including disposal and end-of-life issues, and charging infrastructure. Finally, the last chapter is dedicated to future scenarios, both in terms of CO2 emissions and the impact on the national electricity demand.  

Selected data and insight from the study on e-buses in Itay 

The chapter on the market compares Italy with Europe, providing insights into ongoing trends. The researchers gathered data on new registrations of buses with “alternative fuel types”, including electric, hybrid, liquefied or compressed gas, and hydrogen buses.  

“Among alternative fuel types, electric buses have the highest sales percentages and are the only trend showing continuous growth. In Italy, in 2023, 27.5% of new urban bus registrations were electric.” The European average is higher, at around 40% in 2023.

On the other hand, the research team highlights that the Italian bus fleet is generally older than the European one and will likely undergo increasing replacements over the new few years.

From a geographical distribution perspective, in Italy, there is a north-south imbalance. Looking at the new e-bus registrations for the 2022-2023 period, 79% of vehicles were registered in northern regions, despite the presence of some “successful” southern regions in 2022, such as Sicily and Campania.  

The chapter on regulations summarizes the European goals driving the transformation of public transport to make it zero emission by 2035, every new bus registered must be zero-emission. It also addresses the issue of funding.  

What funding schemes have been used and could be leveraged in the coming years by cities to purchase zero-emission buses? “As far as vehicle purchases are concerned, resources from the PNRR (National Recovery and Resilience Plan) can be considered depleted. However, €1.7 billion remains available for the purchase of alternative fuel-type buses under the National Sustainable Mobility Strategic Plan. These funds will be sufficient to buy an estimated 350-400 e-buses per year in the near future,” explains Giuseppe Rotondo.  

The example of cities and technological advancements in battery development 

The chapter on cities provides an intriguing snapshot of the bids and investments made by various public transport companies like ATM in Milan, GTT in Turin, ATAC in Rome, and ANM in Naples. “What surprised us, is that sometimes, public transport companies invest in zero-emission mobility even more decisively than the goals set by the city itself,” comments Giuseppe Rotondo.  

In the section on technologies, the report highlights the increased range of vehicles thanks to advancements in battery technology. “In 2020, the average maximum battery capacity of buses on the market was 329kWh, but by 2024, it has risen to 441kWh, an increase of 34%. This is a clear sign that the technology is improving significantly.” Conversely, costs are trending downward.

When it comes to electric mobility, batteries are often at the center of public debate and present challenges even for industry professionals. “If a newly registered bus has a lifespan of at least 20 years, its battery will need to be replaced before then, leading to additional costs. However, as highlighted in our study, there is a market for used batteries, with companies specializing in recycling and disposal.  

Another frequently asked question concerns future scenarios and the increase in electricity consumption. Will the national power grid be able to meet the additional energy demand from a fully electrified public transport system? The research team considered a hypothetical bus fleet for 2050, fully zero-emission, and the resulting increase in power and electricity that would be needed from the grid. These projections were compared with a current figure: the energy production capacity from renewable sources installed in recent years. The analysis shows that the renewable energy currently available could already meet the energy needs of a zero-emission bus fleet in 2050.

technical documentation

The fulI report, available online

The study “The evolution of public transport electrification” was published in June 2024 by Eurac Research, Motus-E, and Sustainable Bus. The authors are Giuseppe Rotondo, Matteo Giacomo Prina, and Wolfram Sparber, with support from Amy Segata and Giulia Olivieri.
The report is accessible on the Motus-E website, in both Italian and English.